Our tipster Jones Knows unleashes his tips, analysis and predictions across the Premier League card and sees a big twist coming in the title race.
Brentford vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Christian Eriksen playing for this Brentford side warms the cockles, doesn’t it? But emotion aside, this is still a player pulling the strings to supreme levels like he always has done.
He was sensational in the defeat at Old Trafford, revelling in a free role to dictate the play, provide ammunition for his somewhat misfiring strikers and firing quality efforts on goal from range. Nemanja Matic and Scott McTominay looked like a couple of celebrities playing in a charity game against a seasoned pro trying to stop him.
Southampton play a very aggressive style which will afford space for Eriksen to roam in. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have conceded 21 goals in their last nine Premier League games since the start of March and have won only one of the last nine Premier League games (losing six), so goalscoring situations should be on the agenda for the home side. They look a solid option at 11/10 with Sky Bet for the win.
Eriksen himself looks a fair price at 4/1 with Sky Bet to get in on the goalscoring action. In his seven starts, he has fired 13 shots from outside the box, including two that hit the target against Manchester United. A player with his quality that has scored 23 goals from outside the box in the Premier League is always worth a look at scoring from range. He is 10/1 with to do in this game which should be a open, free-flowing affair.
Those that like to play a shorter price should be alerted to the 10/11 with Sky Bet for Eriksen to have a shot on target from outside the box, too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Christian Eriksen to have a shot on target (4/7 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Christian Eriksen to score from outside the box (10/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Burnley vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
My instincts are telling me to oppose goals.
Burnley have opened up under Mike Jackson and their games are producing a higher expected goals number, however, it’s hard to get away from the notion that these two teams are excellent in defence.
Since Steven Gerrard was appointed in November, Aston Villa have consistently posted top-six standard defensive displays. Their expected goals against data has them averaging 1.01 goals conceded per 90 minutes which has them as the fourth-best defence in that metric over a 22-game period. An impressive feat from Gerrard and something they can most certainly build on next season.
Eight clean sheets have been kept in that run, too. Interestingly, Burnley have also kept eight clean sheets in that period with the base of James Tarkowski and Nick Pope continually showing that they deserve to be competing far higher up the Premier League table.
The 0-0 draw at 9/1 with Sky Bet is a runner but I’m happy to take a shorter price and row in with ‘both teams to score: no’ at Evens. It’s a bet that has landed in seven of Burnley’s last eight home wins and seven of Villa’s last nine Premier League games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 | BETTING ANGLE: ‘Both teams to score: no’ (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There were only 12 shots in the corresponding fixture that ended 0-0 – the second-fewest in a Premier League game this season. And it’s very easy to see a similar scenario playing out at Stamford Bridge with both teams really struggling for rhythm in the final third.
Chelsea have scored more than one goal in only two of their last seven Premier League fixtures and despite some Jordan Pickford heroics for Everton, Chelsea’s expected goals tally of 1.27 against one of the Premier League’s worst defences sums up their current malaise.
Meanwhile, Wolves have quietly slipped under the radar in terms of how miserable their performances have been. They have created an expected goals figure of just 6.93 in their last eight games combined, the worst tally per 90 minutes of any team in the Premier League whilst failing to score in their last three games against Brighton, Burnley and Newcastle. The Chelsea defence are going to prove a tough nut for them to crack.
I think Chelsea will have enough quality to edge this one though and I’m hoping Reece James is the man to provide the killer moment.
Yet again with him fully fit, confident and playing against a team likely to offer up chances, James is a fantastic bet across a variety of markets this weekend. The 5/1 with Sky Bet on him to bag his sixth goal of the season makes plenty of appeal. He’s had seven shots on goal in the last two games, producing an expected goals figure of 0.48. A player with that set of data shouldn’t be so big in the market to find the net.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Reece James to score (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Watford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Watford will be relegated if they fail to win at Selhurst Park as the cruel twist of a manager having his fate sealed at his former club is on the cards for a second weekend running after Dean Smith was relegated at Villa Park.
Former Palace boss Roy Hodgson has won only two of his 14 matches in charge of Watford, with his win percentage record of 14.3 per cent the worst in his career since a spell at Bristol City in 1982.
Palace are about the right price at 8/13 with Sky Bet to win back-to-back Premier League games for just the second time this season. And they’ll probably achieve it keeping a fourth straight clean sheet at home which would be their longest run without conceding a goal in the Premier League at Selhurst Park.
My eyes have been drawn to Wilfried Zaha in the goalscorer market, who is having his best-ever scoring season in the Premier League with 12 goals. Two of those goals have come from shots from outside the area this season. In total, he has peppered 14 strikes on goal from outside the box which makes the 25/1 with Sky Bet for him to score from range against arguably the worst team in the league very appealing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Wilfried Zaha to score from outside the box (25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brighton vs Manchester United, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
If anyone thinks Manchester United have turned a corner, please think again.
The 3-0 win over Brentford is a classic example of how purely using the final score and expected goals to base strong betting decisions without the use of eyes and gut instinct can take you down the wrong path. Along with inflicting a dominant scoreline, United dominated the expected goals battle 2.17 to 0.64 as the big chances fell their way.
However, having watched the game, the Bees were afforded huge amounts of promising openings in the match, especially at 1-0 when the game felt like it was going with Thomas Frank’s side until Cristiano Ronaldo won the crucial penalty. United allowed Brentford 24 touches in their box on Monday night which backs up my theory that they were fortunate not to concede despite their apparent strong expected goals against data. In fact, over their last five fixtures United have conceded on average 29.2 touches in their box – only West Ham, Everton, Leeds and Watford average more.
Brighton are tactically mature enough to locate the wide-open spaces that lead to promising attacking moments and they will find plenty in this fixture. The problem with Brighton is their inability to take full advantage of their impressive build-up play at home. They are without a win at the Amex in eight Premier League games, failing to score in five of the last six.
There is also the Ronaldo factor to consider, who looks razor sharp. He will only need one chance to score such is his form that has seen him score nine goals in his last six games.
As you can tell, I’m in an indecisive mood on this one. When that is the case, back the draw – something Brighton have done 14 times this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Back the draw (12/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs Tottenham, Saturday 7.45pm
Liverpool are going to be made to work very hard in this one. It’s time to ditch the theory of low-scoring wins for Jurgen Klopp’s men as Tottenham head to Anfield with the perfect attacking philosophy to score goals. Liverpool leave so much space in behind and Spurs are very happy to play against such defences with quick, direct attacks suiting their forward players.
They are a dangerous side that have scored six in three fixtures with Liverpool and Manchester City this season whilst taking six points off Pep Guardiola’s men. When you throw Liverpool’s deadly attack into the mix, it’s hard to see how this game doesn’t produce fireworks.
Instead of backing a pro-Liverpool outcome, my eyes have wandered to the goalscorer market where Heung-Min Son looks overpriced at 2/1 with Sky Bet to score in a predicted goal-heavy game. Son’s double last weekend in the win over Leicester took him to 19 Premier League goals and to within three goals of Mohamed Salah in the Golden Boot race. It’s worth noting all of Son’s goals have been non-penalties whilst Salah has scored five from the spot.
You can rest assured Son will be testing the Liverpool offside trap on regular occasions. In his last eight appearances against the Reds and Manchester City, he has managed to break it and score five times, which is a very healthy strike-rate against the two best defences in Europe.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Heung-Min Son to score (2/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Arsenal vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Before they played Manchester City last weekend, Leeds United stood just 10 per cent probability of being relegated. How quickly things can change.
That is now up to 44 per cent as they have shot into favouritism in the relegation market with 5/4 on offer for them to fall through the trapdoor. This is a rather unfortunate fixture for them too. With Burnley and Everton playing teams that have little to play for the Premier League, Leeds have a team fully pumped up and rested to give everything for their quest to make the top four. Arsenal are also a team that have little trouble swatting aside relegation fodder.
For example, they are unbeaten in 33 home Premier League games against promoted sides (winning 28), since losing to Newcastle in November 2010. I’m aware Leeds aren’t a promoted team this season but it’s a relevant statistic. Leeds were also dispatched 4-1 by the Gunners at Elland Road earlier this season.
Saying that, Jesse Marsch has made them harder to beat since Marcelo Bielsa departed, taking their expected goals against figure per 90 minutes from 2.1 to 1.4.
Arsenal, much like Liverpool, are happy winning games in ‘job done’ fashion at the moment which sails against the market expectation on the game being a goal-heavy one. Leeds’ improvement in defence added to Arsenal’s liking for winning games by one goal, makes the 100/30 with Sky Bet on Arsenal to win and under 2.5 goals a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Arsenal to win and under 2.5 goals (100/30 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Leicester vs Everton, Sunday 2pm
Everton’s escape route has been to play ugly football. Desperate times have called for desperate measures. And credit to them. This nasty, direct style of play completely did for Chelsea last weekend in the Goodison Park cauldron. They played the percentages, they snapped into tackles, they wasted time, they rattled the opposition. The only thing missing to complete the “old school” football set was a goal from a set-piece.
That may come here in a game they can most certainly get something from against a timid Leicester side. Yerry Mina to score a header at 14/1 with Sky Bet is my chosen weapon. His return to fitness offers Frank Lampard so much in both boxes – and not to mention Mina’s leadership qualities at playing dark arts football.
Seven goals from 78 starts puts him up there with the most deadly attackers of a set piece in the Premier League and his prices are a little too inflated as his season has been ravaged by injuries so his shots data has trended downwards. Here, he faces a Leicester side that have conceded the most goals from set-pieces (27) and most from corners (14) this season. This might be the time to catch the big man so backing him at 4/6 for a shot and going for glory with a headed goal at 16/1 with Sky Bet is the way to go.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Yerry Mina to have at least one shot (4/6 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Yerry Mina to score a header (16/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Norwich vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
I searched desperately for a reason to back a Norwich based bet in this one as West Ham’s form after a European night is an angle we have profitably exploited in recent months. How about a relegated team’s result and goals patterns after relegation has been confirmed? Maybe there is a spike when the relative pressure of a relegation battle are removed? Nope. Teams that have an ‘R’ next to their name have lost 24 of their 36 matches in the last five years in the Premier League, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per 90 minutes in those fixtures.
So, despite the obvious issues with West Ham’s focus, they still have enough quality in reserve to win this match without conceding. The 9/4 on them to do so make sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: West Ham to win to nil (9/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
In my world of trying to nick a few quid off the bookmakers, price is absolutely everything and everything has its price.
Some people simply don’t understand that I’m not trying to argue who do I think will win the game but I’m trying to make a well-reasoned case for why a certain scenario is overpriced.
I took on Manchester City last week when the odds suggested they had an 80 per cent chance of beating Leeds and I’ve got to stick to my guns with my ‘after a Champions League matchday’ theory when they are being given an 89 per cent chance this weekend against a far more dangerous side than Leeds, albeit they are at home.
I am happy to swim against the market as I remain very edgy about City after they have played a Champions League knockout match especially with the mental hangover potentially lingering from Wednesday. Their heads will be frazzled.
There is a pattern emerging of them being vulnerable. After 16 knockout games where that tie was realistically in the balance, they have lost on seven occasions in the next domestic match to Leeds (1-2), Chelsea (0-1), Chelsea (1-2), Wigan (0-1), Manchester United (2-3), Tottenham (2-3) and Liverpool (2-3).
There does seem a drop in levels after a big midweek effort in Europe where the emotions involved in their pursuit for that elusive trophy do seem to weigh heavy. It’s impossible to put a number on how much the complete choke against Real Madrid will affect their mentality back in a competition that they are four wins away from landing. Lifting his players after what happened on Wednesday will be a big test for the boss.
But with such an in-form team on their doorstep in Newcastle, backing the 9/2 with Sky Bet for Eddie Howe’s men to win or draw is just too juicy to ignore.
Since Newcastle’s 1-0 Premier League away win vs Leeds on January 22, only Liverpool (37) have taken more Premier League points than Newcastle (31). They have taken four more points than Manchester City in this period, albeit having played three games more. If they can defend in their usual strong structure and hit shrewdly on the break, then those taking the 1/8 with Sky Bet on a home win could have an anxious Sunday afternoon.